Referenzen

Aitkin, Murray, Brian Francis, John Hinde, and Ross Darnell. 2009. Statistical Modelling in r. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Akaike, H. 1974. “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification.” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19: 716–23.

Almasi, B, A Roulin, S Jenni-Eiermann, C W Breuner, and L Jenni. 2009. “Regulation of Free Corticosterone and CBG Capacity Under Different Environmental Conditions in Altricial Nestlings.” Gen. Comp. Endocr. 164: 117–24.

Amrhein, Valentin, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane. 2019. “Retire Statistical Significance.” Nature 567: 305–7.

Anderson, David R. 2008. Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences: A Primer on Evidence. New York: Springer.

Anderson, J A. 1974. “Diagnosis by Logistic Discriminant Function: Further Practical Problems and Results.” Journal of Applied Statistics 23: 397–404.

Armagan, Artin, and Russel L Zaretzki. 2010. “Model Selection via Adaptive Shrinkage with t Priors.” Computational Statistics 25: 441–61.

Bayes, R T. 1763. “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Lodon 53: 370–418.

Betancourt, M.~J. 2013. “Generalizing the No-U-Turn Sampler to Riemannian Manifolds.” ArXiv e-Prints, April. https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.1920.

Betancourt, M.~J., and M. Girolami. 2013. “Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Hierarchical Models.” ArXiv e-Prints. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.0906.

Bornmann, Lutz, and Julian N. Marewski. 2024. “Opium in Science and Society: Numbers and Other Quantifications.” Scientometrics, September. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-024-05104-1.

Brilleman, Samuel L., Eren M. Elci, Jacqueline Buros Novik, and Rory Wolfe. 2020. “Bayesian Survival Analysis Using the Rstanarm r Package.” http://arxiv.org/pdf/2002.09633v1.

Brown, P J, M Vannucci, and T Fearn. 2002. “Bayes Model Averaging with Selection of Regressors.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B 64: 519–36.

Bürkner, Paul-Christian. 2017. “Brms: An r Package for Bayesian Multilevel Models Using Stan.” Journal of Statistical Software 80: 1–28.

Burnham, K P, and D R Anderson. 2002. Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer.

Carlin, B P, and Siddhartha Chib. 1995. “Bayesian Model Choice via Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57: 473–84.

Claeskens, Gerda, and Nils Lid Hjort. 2008. Model Selection and Model Averaging. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Davidson, Roger R, and Daniel L Solomon. 1974. “Moment-Type Estimation in the Exponential Family.” Communications in Statistics 3 (11): 1101–8.

Davison, A C, and E J Snell. 1991. “Residuals and Diagnostics.” In Statistical Theory and Modelling. In Honour of Sir David Cox, FRS, edited by D V Hinkley, N Reid, and E J Snell. London: Chapman {\&} Hall.

Dekking, F M, C Kraaikamp, H P Lopuhaä, and L E Meester. 2005. A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Understanding Why and How. London: Springer.

Efron, Bradley, and Trevor Hastie. 2016. Computer age statistical inference: Algorithms, evidence, and data science. Institute of Mathematical Statistics Monographs.

Ellenberg, H. 1953. “Physiologisches Und Oekologisches Verhalten Derselben Pflanzenarten.” Berichte Der Deutschen Botanischen Gesellschaft 65: 350361.

Fisher, R A. 1925. Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Edingburgh: Oliver; Boyd.

Gelfand, Alan E, and Adrian F M Smith. 1990. “Sampling-Based Approach to Calculating Marginal Densities.” Journal of American Statistical Association 85: 398–409.

Gelman, A. 2006. “Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models.” Bayesian Analysis 1: 515–33.

Gelman, A, John B Carlin, Hal S Stern, David B Dunson, Aki Vehtari, and Donald B Rubin. 2014. Bayesian Data Analysis. Third. New York: CRC Press.

Gelman, Andrew, and Sander Greenland. 2019. “Are Confidence Intervals Better Termed Uncertainty Intervals?” BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.) 366: l5381. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l5381.

Gelman, Andrew, and Jennifer Hill. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel / Hierarchical Models. Cambridge University Press.

Gelman, Andrew, and Yu-Sung Su. 2022. Arm: Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=arm.

Gelman, A, and Donald B Rubin. 1995. “Avoiding Model Selection in Bayesian Social Research.” Sociological Methodology 25: 165–73.

———. 1999. “Evaluating and Using Statistical Methods in the Social Sciences: A Discussion of {\Dq}a Critique of the Bayesian Information Criterion for Model Selection{\dq}.” Sociological Methods {\&} Research 27: 403–10. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124199027003004.

Gilks, W R, S Richardson, and D J Spiegelhalter. 1996. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Boca Raton: Chapman{\&} Hall/CRC.

Gimenez, Olivier, Simon J Bonner, Ruth King, Richard A Parker, Stephen P Brooks, Lara E Jamieson, Vladimir Grosbois, Byron J T Morgan, and Len Thomas. 2009. “WinBUGS for Population Ecologists: Bayesian Modelling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods.” In Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations, edited by D L Thomson, E G Cooch, and M J Conroy, 3:883–915. Berlin: Springer.

Goodrich, Ben, Jonah Gabry, Imad Ali, and Sam Brilleman. 2023. “Rstanarm: Bayesian Applied Regression Modeling via Stan.” https://mc-stan.org/rstanarm/.

Gottschalk, Thomas, Klemens Ekschmitt, and Volkmar Wolters. 2011. “Efficient Placement of Nest Boxes for the Little Owl (Athene Noctua).” The Journal of Raptor Research 45: 1–14.

Grendelmeier, Alex, Raphaël Arlettaz, and Gilberto Pasinelli. 2018. “Numerical Response of Mammalian Carnivores to Rodents Affects Bird Reproduction in Temperate Forests: A Case of Apparent Competition?” Ecology and Evolution 8 (23): 11596–608. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4608.

Grüebler, M. U., F. Korner-Nievergelt, and J. Von Hirschheydt. 2010. “The reproductive benefits of livestock farming in barn swallows Hirundo rustica: Quality of nest site or foraging habitat?” Journal of Applied Ecology 47 (6). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01873.x.

Harju, S. 2016. “Book review:~Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan.” The Journal of Wildlife Management 80: 771.

Harrison, Xavier A. 2014. “Using Observation-Level Random Effects to Model Overdispersion in Count Data in Ecology and Evolution.” PeerJ 2: e616. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.616.

Hastie, T, R Tibshirani, and J Friedman. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning, Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. New York: Springer.

Hemming, Victoria, Abbey E. Camaclang, Megan S. Adams, Mark Burgman, Katherine Carbeck, Josie Carwardine, Iadine Chadès, et al. 2022. “An Introduction to Decision Science for Conservation.” Conservation Biology. John Wiley; Sons Inc. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13868.

Hoeting, J A, D Madigan, A E Raftery, and C T Volinsky. 1999. “Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial (with Discussion).” Statistical Science 14: 382–417.

Hoffman, Matthew D, and Andrew Gelman. 2014. “The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.” Journal of Machine Learning Research 15 (1): 1593–623.

Hooten, M B, and N T Hobbs. 2015. “A Guide to Bayesian Model Selection for Ecologists.” Ecological Monographs 85: 3–28.

Hoyle, Rick H. 2012. Handbook of Structural Equation Modeling. New York: The Guildford Press.

Jenni, L, and R Winkler. 1989. “The Feather-Length of Small Passerines: A Measurement for Wing-Length in Live Birds and Museum Skins.” Bird Study 36: 1–15.

King, R, and S P Brooks. 2002. “Bayesian Model Discrimination for Multiple Strata Capture-Recapture Data.” Biometrika 89: 785–806.

Korner-Nievergelt, F, T Roth, Stefanie von Felten, J Guélat, B Almasi, and P Korner-Nievergelt. 2015. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecolog Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan. New York: Elsevier.

Lemoine, Nathan P. 2019. “Moving Beyond Noninformative Priors: Why and How to Choose Weakly Informative Priors in Bayesian Analyses.” Oikos 128 (7): 912–28. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.05985.

Link, William A, and Richard J Barker. 2010. Bayesian Inference with Ecologial Applications. London: Academic Press.

MacKenzie, Darryl I, James D Nichols, G B Lachman, S Droege, J A Royle, and C A Langtimm. 2002. “Estimating Site Occupancy Rates When Detection Probabilities Are Less Than One.” Ecology 83: 2248–55.

MacLehose, Richard F, David B Dunson, Amy H Herring, and Jane A Hoppin. 2007. “Bayesian Methods for Highly Correlated Exposure Data.” Epidemiology 18: 199–207.

Manly, Bryan F J. 1994. Multivariate Statistical Methods, A Primer. London: 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall.

Mayfield, Harold F. 1975. “Suggestions for Calculating Nest Success.” Wilson Bulletin 87: 456–66.

McElreath, Richard. 2020. Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan. 2nd edition. New York: Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology; CRC Press.

Nakagawa, Shinichi, and Holger Schielzeth. 2013. “A General and Simple Method for Obtaining R2 from Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4: 133–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00261.x.

O’Hara, R B, and M J Sillanpää. 2009. “A Review of Bayesian Variable Selection Methods: What, How and Which.” Bayesian Analysis 4: 85–118.

Pledger, S., K. H. Pollock, and James L. Norris. 2003. “Open Capture-Recapture Models with Heterogeneity: I. Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model.” Biometrics 59: 786–94.

Royle, J A. 2009. “Analysis of Capture-Recapture Models with Individual Covariates Using Data Augmentation.” Biometrics 65: 267–74.

Royle, J. Andrew. 2004. “N-Mixture Models for Estimating Population Size from Spatially Replicated Counts.” Biometrics 60: 108–15.

Royle, J. Andrew, and Robert M. Dorazio. 2008. Hierarchical Modelling and Inference in Ecology. London: Academic Press.

Runge, Michale C., Sarah J. Converse, James E. Lyons, and David R. Smith. 2020. Structured Decision Making. Johns Hopkins University Press.

Schano, Christian, Carole Niffenegger, Tobias Jonas, and Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt. 2021. “Hatching phenology is lagging behind an advancing snowmelt pattern in a high-alpine bird.” Scientific Reports 11 (1): 20130016. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01497-8.

Schwarz, G. 1978. “Estimating the Dimension of a Model.” Annals of Statistics 6: 461–64.

Shaffer, Terry L. 2004. “A Unified Approach to Analyzing Nest Success.” The Auk 121: 526–40.

Shipley, Bill. 2009. “Confirmatory path analysis in a generalized multilevel context.” Ecology 90: 363–68.

Shmueli, Galit. 2010. “To Explain or to Predict?” Statistical Science 25: 289–310.

Smith, A F M, A M Skene, J E H Shaw, J C Naylor, and M Dransfield. 1985. “Progress with Numerical and Graphical Methods for Bayesian Statistics.” Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 14: 1079–1102.

Spiegelhalter, David J, Nicola G Best, Bradley P Carlin, and Angelika Van Der Linde. 2002. “Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 64 (4): 583–639.

Stone, M. 1977. “An Asymptotic Equivalence of Choice of Model by Cross-Validation and Akaike’s Criterion.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 39: 44–47.

Thomson, D L, M J Conroy, D R Anderson, K P Burnham, E G Cooch, C M Francis, J.-D. Lebreton, et al. 2009. “Standardising Terminology and notation for the Analysis of Demographic Processes in Marked Populations.” In Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations, edited by D L Thomson, E G Cooch, and M J Conroy, 1099–1106. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 3. Berlin: Springer.

Tibshirani, R. 1996. “Regression Shrinkage and Selection via Lasso.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 58: 267–88.

Tredennick, Andrew T., Giles Hooker, Stephen P. Ellner, and Peter B. Adler. 2021. “A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology.” Ecology 102 (6). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3336.

Vaida, F, and S Blanchard. 2005. “Conditional Akaike Information for Mixed-Effects Models.” Biometrika 92: 351–70.

Venzon, D J, and S H Moolgavkar. 1988. “A Method for Computing Profile-Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals.” Applied Statistics 37: 87–94.

Walters, G. 2012. “Customary Fire Regimes and Vegetation Structure in Gabon’s Bateke Plateaux.” Human Ecology 40: 943–55.

Wan, A T K. 2002. “On Generalized Ridge Regression Estimators Under Collinearity and Balanced Loss.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 129: 455–67.

Watanabe, Sumio. 2010. “Applicable Information Criterion in Singular Learning Theory.” Journal of Machine Learning Research 11: 3571–94.

Wood, Simon N. 2017. Generalized Additive Models, an Introduction with r. 2nd edition. London: Chapman {\&} Hall/CRC.

Zbinden, Niklaus, Marco Salvioni, Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, and Verena Keller. 2018. “Evidence for an Additive Effect of Hunting Mortality in an Alpine Black Grouse Lyrurus Tetrix Population.” Wildlife Biology 2018: xx–xxx.

Zeileis, Achim, Christian Kleiber, and Simon Jackman. 2008. “Regression Models for Count Data in r.” Journal of Statistical Software 27: 1–25.

Zeugner, Stefan. 2011. “Bayesian Model Averaging with BMS.” Tutorial to the R-Package BMS, 1–30.

Zollinger, J.-L., S. Birrer, N. Zbinden, and F. Korner-Nievergelt. 2013. “The Optimal Age of Sown Field Margins for Breeding Farmland Birds.” Ibis 155 (4). https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.12072.

Zuur, Alain F, Elena N Ieno, Neil J Walker, Anatoly A Saveliev, and Graham M Smith. 2009. Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with r. Springer.